少し古いのですが，LZH というコンピューターのファイルの圧縮形式の開発が中止になったとニュースを最近見ました．それを見ながら，デジタルデータがあっても，それを読みとる方法がない時代がくるのではないかと思いました．
自分が知ってる例だけでも，25 年前のカセットテープ，20 年前のフロッピーディスク，15 年前の MO とか ZIP と呼ばれる記憶媒体からデータを読み取るのは，今ならば一手間かかるはずです．最近ではそもそもそれらが記憶媒体だと知らない人も多いと思います．記憶媒体そのものの物理的寿命については聞いたことがあるけど，そういう「規格」とか「フォーマット」か変わるために，昔のデータが読めなくなる可能性の方が高いのではないか，と思いました．おそらくこんな大事な話は僕が言い出すわけがありませんから，業界としてどう対応しようとしてるとか，こんな関連研究がある，など詳しい話があれば興味あります．
現在を起点に見ても，おそらく 10 年後に USB が同じ規格のままの可能性は低そうです．今までのハードウエアの変遷を見たら，常に規格が変わり続けているからです．20 年後に「あの頃はフラッシュドライブというのがあって」という話になるのは，これまでの展開を考えれば妥当な展開ではないでしょうか．他にも Kindle の本データのフォーマットもいつまで続くのかわかんないし，画像ファイルの jpg だってあと何年続くのかわかりません．もし jpg よりも 100 倍圧縮効率の良いフォーマットが出てきたら，全てのカメラの画像データの規格が移行し，いずれ jpg は誰も使わなくって，多分 10 年くらいはみんなどうやって読み取るか覚えてるんでしょうが，20 年経てば読み取れる人は一部の愛好者だけ，50 年経つと誰もわからない，ということになりかねません．僕は詳しくないけど，ビデオのベータも規格競争に負けて以来は，そんな感じだったのでしょうか．そして規格競争に勝った VHS だってそうですし，レコード，CD，MD の類いも長い目で見たら使われなくなってます．（MD プレーヤー，今も使ってる人ってどれくらいいるのでしょう？）今ではデータを読み取る機械を探すのに手間がかかりますし，あと 10 年経てば機械すらも生産されなくなくなるかもしれません．ですから，常に進歩している記憶媒体の業界では，数年経ったものは必ず衰退するのかなとも思います．
あと今回の本題からはズレますが，データを自分で持たずにバックアップ，という昨今のスタイルもリスクは大きいはずです．facebook なり Google なりが，ビジネスをやめてサーバーの電源を切らざるを得なくなったら，もはや自分からそこにアクセスできません．（そしてそもそも「そこ」が物理的に「どこ」かわからないのです．）そこにアクセスできないからといって補償するほどの責任がそれらの会社にあるとも思いません．会社が破産したら，ああしょうがないね，とならざるを得ないわけです．戦争などでデータセンターが物理的に破壊されても同じですし，何らかの理由で電気が通じなくなって，ハードディスクを回せなくなったら終了です．そもそも企業が 50 年続く可能性なんて，どれくらいあるのか，ということを考えても，そんなに信頼性の高いデータの保存の方法ではないような気もします．
そんな風に考えたら，例えば子どもが生まれて写真をたくさん撮って，それをクラウドでバックアップして，子どもが大きくなったときに見られるようにしておこう，みたいな考えは，あまり現実的ではないと思いました．繰り返しになりますが，デジタルデータとして残るものの「規格」や「フォーマット」の都合で（データそのものが無事に残っていたとしても）読み取る方法がなくなったり，標準規格が変わって圧縮解凍が簡単ではなくなったり，物理的にアクセスすらできなくなる可能性もあるからです．ちなみに僕もこの文章が，実際に世界のどのサーバに置かれてるのかなんて知らないのです．おそらくアメリカのどこかですが．
ということで残したいものがあるのなら，「道具を使って読み取る必要ない状態」にして後世に残すのが良いのかな，と思いました．文章なら紙に印刷してページ順に並べて（ちなみに自分の博士論文は，長持ちする紙に印刷して製本する，というプロセスが求められました），写真なら印刷して目で見える状態でアルバムに入れて，などです．音楽やビデオはどうするのかわかりませんが，後世に残すためにベストな方法はデジタルデータとして残す，だけではないと思います． 何にしても，自分に子どもができたら，写真は印刷して残したいなあと思います．古事記や日本書紀を見ても，紙の寿命の方が絶対に長そうですし．
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